
CHINA’S efforts to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO) dragged on
for 15 years, long enough to “turn black hair white”, as Zhu Rongji,
China’s former prime minister, put it. (His own hair remained
Politburo-black throughout.) Even after membership was granted, ten
years ago this week, Mr Zhu expected many “headaches”, including the
loss of customs duties and the distress of farmers exposed to foreign
competition.
Yet the bet paid off for China. It has blossomed into
the world’s greatest exporter and second-biggest importer. The marriage
of foreign know-how, Chinese labour and the open, global market has
succeeded beyond anyone’s predictions.
It is instead China’s trading partners who now contemplate its WTO membership with furrowed brows (see article).
They have a variety of complaints: that China exports too much,
swamping their markets with cheap manufactured goods, subsidised by an
undervalued currency; that it hoards essential inputs, such as rare
earths, for its own firms; and that it still skews its own market
against foreign companies, in some cases by being slow to implement WTO
rules (notably on piracy), in others by suddenly imposing unwritten
rules that are unfavourable or unknowable to foreigners. The meddling
state lets multinationals in, only to squeeze them dry of their valuable
technologies and then push them out.
Much of this criticism is
right. China made heroic reforms in the years around its WTO entry. That
raised expectations that it has conspicuously failed to meet. It signed
up for multilateral rules, but neglected the rule of law at home. Free
trade did not bring wider freedoms, and even the trade was not exactly
free. It is in China’s interest to liberalise its exchange rate further,
to prevent local officials from discriminating against foreigners and
above all to do far more to support the global trading system. The WTO
is undermined when any member flouts the rules, never mind one as big as
China.
Too big to be a bystander—or to be kept out
But
China’s sins should be put into perspective. In terms of global trade
consumers everywhere have gained from cheap Chinese goods. Chinese
growth has created a huge market for other countries’ exports. And
China’s remaining barriers are often exaggerated. It is more open to
imports than Japan was at the same stage of development, more open to
foreign direct investment than South Korea was until the 1990s. Its
tariffs are capped at 10% on average; Brazil’s at over 30%. And in
China, unlike India, you can shop at Walmart, most of the time.
As
for the hurdles foreign firms face in China, they are disgraceful—but
sadly no worse than in other developing countries. The grumbles are
louder in China chiefly because the stakes are higher. Foreigners may
have won a smaller slice of China’s market than they had hoped, but
China is a bigger pie than anyone dared to expect. Had China been kept
out of the WTO, there would have been less growth for everybody. And the
WTO still provides the best means to discipline and cajole. Rather than
delivering congressional ultimatums, America and others could make more
use of the WTO’s rules to curb China’s worst infractions.
So
celebrate China’s ten years in the WTO: we are all richer because of it.
But, when it comes to trade, China’s rulers now badly need to grow up.
Their cheating is harming their own consumers and stoking up
protectionism abroad. That could prove to be economic self-harm on an
epic scale.
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